diff --git a/lib/tests/effort-routing.test.sh b/lib/tests/effort-routing.test.sh
new file mode 100755
index 0000000..f3f5504
--- /dev/null
+++ b/lib/tests/effort-routing.test.sh
@@ -0,0 +1,34 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env bash
+# lib/tests/effort-routing.test.sh — census: effort tiering (BDR-NEXT)
+# agent pins, skill entry levels, shifter skills, orchestrator wiring, settings.
+# shellcheck disable=SC2015  # A && ok || ko is deliberate here: ok/ko never fail, so C never masks a true A
+set -u
+R="$(cd "$(dirname "$0")/../.." && pwd)"
+pass=0; fail=0
+ok() { pass=$((pass+1)); }
+ko() { fail=$((fail+1)); printf 'FAIL %s\n' "$1"; }
+has()   { if grep -qF "$2" "$R/$1"; then ok; else ko "$1 missing: $2"; fi; }
+lacks() { if grep -qF "$2" "$R/$1"; then ko "$1 must NOT contain: $2"; else ok; fi; }
+# frontmatter = the lines between the first two '---' lines
+fm() { awk 'NR==1&&/^---$/{p=1;next} p&&/^---$/{exit} p' "$1"; }
+fm_effort() { fm "$1" | grep -E '^effort: (low|medium|high|xhigh|max)$' | head -1 | cut -d' ' -f2; }
+fm_has_effort() {
+  got="$(fm_effort "$R/$1")"
+  if [ "$got" = "$2" ]; then ok; else ko "$1 frontmatter effort must be '$2', got '${got:-none}'"; fi
+}
+fm_no_effort() { if fm "$R/$1" | grep -q '^effort:'; then ko "$1 must NOT pin effort"; else ok; fi; }
+
+# ── flip-test: the frontmatter reader must accept a valid level and reject an invalid one
+FIX="$(mktemp -d)"; trap 'rm -rf "$FIX"' EXIT
+printf -- '---\nname: good\neffort: xhigh\n---\nbody with effort: low in prose\n' > "$FIX/good.md"
+printf -- '---\nname: bad\neffort: turbo\n---\n' > "$FIX/bad.md"
+[ "$(fm_effort "$FIX/good.md")" = "xhigh" ] && ok || ko "flip: valid level not read"
+[ -z "$(fm_effort "$FIX/bad.md")" ] && ok || ko "flip: invalid level accepted"
+[ "$(fm "$FIX/good.md" | grep -c 'prose')" -eq 0 ] && ok || ko "flip: body leaked into frontmatter"
+
+# ── 1) session default (spec D1)
+has "settings.json" '"effortLevel": "high"'
+
+# ── summary (later tasks insert their locks ABOVE this line)
+printf 'effort-routing census: %d pass, %d fail\n' "$pass" "$fail"
+[ "$fail" -eq 0 ]