feat(model-router): wave 2-B — orchestrators declare phases, shifters and pins removed, frontmatter = off-state floor

The 15 Skill(effort-*) citers now call mcp__model-router__route per phase
(orchestrate at a dispatch span, reflect/plan for the skill's own level,
apply at the bookkeeping tail, escalate at the verify-secure caps); built-in
judgment dispatches carry an explicit effort= param. lib/effort-shift.md is
the route doctrine, lib/model-gate.md the mod rule (route answer = witness,
/route on as remedy). Deleted: skills/effort-*, lib/effort-pins.txt/.sh,
lib/model-check.sh, their tests, the installers' re-apply blocks. The mod
drops its Skill(effort-*) bridge. The tracked model:/effort: frontmatter
stays as the off-state floor, census-locked equal to the rows
(lib/tests/effort-routing.test.sh rewritten, 140 checks; analyzer → xhigh).

Contract .claude/tasks/contracts/2026-10-10-model-router-w2b-1045.md, plan
r4 § W2-B: GATE 0 MET, verifier ECARTS(7) then CONFORME 10/10, security
PASS, full make test green (design-tool-gate env red only).

skills/geo/SKILL.md

@@ -29,7 +29,7 @@ Run `$HOME/.claude/lib/model-gate.md`. Reflection here (planning, audit
 judgment, loop decisions) requires Fable/Opus. Verdict `small` → STOP: the
 gate prints the remedy; end the turn — no later step, no dispatch. Nominal
 (big) path is silent.
-EFFORT SHIFTS: follow `$HOME/.claude/lib/effort-shift.md` (BDR-107): medium when a dispatch span starts, own level before challenge synthesis, low at the bookkeeping tail, max at escalation; every shift goes in the same message as the step's first tool call, a lone Skill call is a no-op.
+ROUTING: follow $HOME/.claude/lib/effort-shift.md (phases via mcp__model-router__route).
 
 Dispatches the `geo-analyzer` subagent (audit + fix bundle), then applies
 the bundle from THIS main loop at **L1** — same shape as `/web-validate`
@@ -47,7 +47,7 @@ every phase (LRN-126). Clean `.audit/geo-signals-<RUNID>.md` after apply.
 
 **A — collect (sonnet):**
 ```
-Skill(effort-medium)   # effort-shift: dispatch span starts; send with the Agent call below in ONE message
+mcp__model-router__route(phase="orchestrate")   # route: dispatch span starts; send with the Agent call below in ONE message
 Agent(subagent_type="geo-analyzer", model="sonnet")
 prompt: "MODE: collect
 RUNID: <RUNID>
@@ -86,7 +86,7 @@ your bundle."
 ```
 
 ## STEP 1b — CHALLENGE THE FIX BUNDLE (advisory, before apply)
-`Skill(effort-high)` first (effort-shift: own level before the challenge; send it in the same message as the challenger dispatch).
+`mcp__model-router__route(phase="reflect")` first (route: own level before the challenge; send it with the challenger dispatch).
 The analyzer returned a `## FIX BUNDLE` — worth attacking before any edit lands.
 **Skip if intervention mode = conservative** (nothing is applied). Else persist the
 bundle verbatim to `.claude/tasks/plans/<date>-<slug>-<HHMM>.md`, then run
@@ -118,7 +118,7 @@ intent, not header wording: **AUTO** = no-confirmation items (G1–G4/G6);
 For each AUTO item, dispatch its `applier` at L1, passing the item verbatim:
 
 ```
-Skill(effort-medium)   # effort-shift: dispatch span starts; send with the Agent call below in ONE message
+mcp__model-router__route(phase="orchestrate")   # route: dispatch span starts; send with the Agent call below in ONE message
 Agent(subagent_type="hotfixer")     # or "feater" per the item's applier
 prompt: "<paste the bundle item: files, concern, current, expected,
   framework note + shared-file discipline>.