chore(tasks): model-tiering v2 — analysis + challenged plan v3 + TODO reconcile

Plan challenged by 3 blind lenses + 1 confirmation pass (1 BLOCKER closed
by fable-dispatch spike, 6 MAJORs + 8 MINORs fixed by named changes, 0
deferred). TODO: seo-geo-integrity 'UNMERGED' note was stale (92301fe
already in develop) — corrected.

.claude/tasks/plans/2026-07-19-model-tiering-v2-analysis.md

@@ -0,0 +1,277 @@
+# ANALYSIS: model-tiering v2 — Fable = orchestration + plan/solution reflection only; dispatched fleet tiered opus/sonnet/haiku by task complexity; split mixed-tier agents
+
+Produced by /analyze (main loop, Fable) + 4 subagent sweeps (2× agent-body
+classification, dispatch map, test-lock inventory), 2026-07-19. Facts verified
+against: model-routing.test.sh, challenge-plan.md, verify-secure-loop.md,
+model-gate.md, BDR-050/061/066/076, LRN-113/125/126 (read in full inline).
+Subagent-reported details not re-verified inline are marked (sub) — LRN-132
+applies: re-verify load-bearing ones before cutting code.
+
+## CONTEXT
+
+- Current state (branch `feature/opus-pin-audit-agents`, 2 commits, UNMERGED):
+  main loop = session model (Fable; model-gate blocks small models in 15
+  reflection skills). Dispatched pins: opus = analyzer, plan-challenger,
+  seo-analyzer, geo-analyzer, validator-analyzer (BDR-076); sonnet = 14
+  executors; haiku = status-reporter. Unpinned = interviewer,
+  client-handover-writer (inline-load only).
+- Two execution modes with OPPOSITE tier semantics: Agent() dispatch →
+  frontmatter pin applies; inline-load ("you become it") → pin INERT, runs on
+  session model. 20 inline-load sites exist.
+- Target policy (user directive): Fable does ONLY main-loop orchestration +
+  reflection on plan/solution. Everything dispatched runs opus (deep judgment)
+  / sonnet (standard execution) / haiku (mechanical) by ACTUAL task
+  complexity. Agents mixing classes get split. Skills adapted. Zero loss, zero
+  regression.
+
+## KEY COMPONENTS — per-agent verdict vs target
+
+### Fits, no change
+| agent | tier | note |
+|---|---|---|
+| plan-challenger | opus | coherent monolith; verdict grammar + PROOF load-bearing |
+| feater / bugfixer / hotfixer | sonnet | closed-plan executors; NEED-DECISION / BLOCKED valves |
+| security-auditor | sonnet | deterministic SAST gate; `SECURITY — VERDICT:` grammar |
+| scaffolder | sonnet (effort: high) | but see INERT-PIN below — never dispatched today |
+| status-reporter | haiku | exemplar mechanical |
+| client-handover-writer | none (inline orchestrator) | one haiku-able seam: STEP 1-2 git/context preflight |
+| interviewer | none (inline) | INTERACTIVE — asks user inline; a dispatched agent cannot ask (uniform ban). Structurally main-loop. |
+
+### Tier-down candidates (no split)
+| agent | current → candidate | evidence |
+|---|---|---|
+| validator-analyzer | opus → sonnet | NOT mixed: runs external validators (authoritative), fixed severity tables, base-100 deduction scoring, allowlist-driven fix bundle; ambiguity punted to user §6. No deep judgment present. (sub) |
+| onboarder | sonnet → haiku candidate | template-fill + conditional writes; only light stack-block filtering. (sub) Also inert-pin today. |
+| release-executor | sonnet (keep, borderline) | mostly script runs + CHANGELOG templating, but carries a NEED-DECISION judgment valve (MAJOR-bump wording). (sub) |
+
+### Split candidates (mixed classes inside one body)
+| agent | geometry (factual boundary) | complication |
+|---|---|---|
+| seo-analyzer | collection (STEP 2-5 curls/CWV/GSC/greps → haiku-class) / judgment (STEP 6-11 sampling, competitive, scoring, triage → opus) / templating (STEP 12-14 bundle+report → sonnet/haiku) | BDR-061: no Agent tool in analyzers (single-dispatch doctrine) → a split must be ORCHESTRATED BY THE SKILL at L1 with disk handoffs, or BDR-061 revised (nesting works ≥2.1.172 per BDR-060, but version-robust-by-design was chosen). seo-data.test.sh locks `fetch.sh` wiring strings IN the agent body (6 locks). STEP 1-2 context feeds every later step → large LRN-126 contract surface. |
+| geo-analyzer | identical 3-way geometry | same complications; shares severity vocab + sentinel |
+| commit-changer | MODE propose (narrative reconstruction + capitalize routing = deep) / MODE apply (stage+commit = mechanical) — boundary ALREADY exists as dispatch modes | 2 dispatch sites in /commit-change; per-dispatch `model=` override is an available lighter mechanism than a file split |
+| doc-syncer | drift detection + semantic doc-type analysis + MINOR/SIGNIFICANT calls (deep) / discovery + template render + PATCHED_FILES emit (mechanical) | 9 consumers on BOTH modes: dispatched ×2 (/doc, onboard) + inline-load ×7 (bugfix, hotfix, feat, init-project ×2, ship-feature, scaffolder) — LRN-125 dual-use-across-tiers hazard; runs its own user validation gate (STEP 8) → gate must be hoisted before any dispatch conversion |
+| handover-doc-writer | synthesis/vulgarization STEP 10-12 (deep) / render+deterministic gates STEP 13-16 (mechanical) | skill-leak ban list + `HANDOVER-DOC REPORT` grammar must survive |
+| plugin-advisor | detection PHASE 1 (mechanical) / complexity scoring + decision-table reasoning PHASE 2.5 (deep) | INERT PIN: inline-loaded ×4 (plugin-check, onboard, init-project, ship-feature), NEVER dispatched — sonnet pin is dead config; PHASE 4 asks the user (inline-only capability) |
+| verifier | STEP 2 evidence adjudication = deep judgment inside a sonnet procedural gate | BDR-066 kept sonnet DELIBERATELY (oracle-anchored to contract, ≤3×/loop). Tier-up = design arbitrage, not a mechanical fix. contract-verifier.test.sh locks name/tools/body (33 asserts). |
+
+### INERT-PIN finding (structural gap vs target)
+scaffolder, onboarder, plugin-advisor are pinned sonnet but NEVER dispatched —
+inline-load only → they run on Fable today. doc-syncer's doc-commit steps
+(bugfix/hotfix/feat/init-project/ship-feature/scaffolder) also run inline on
+Fable. Under the target policy these are EXECUTION tasks burning Fable — a
+bigger real gap than any pin value. Each inline→dispatch conversion must hoist
+its user gates into the dispatcher first (dispatched agents cannot ask).
+
+## CONSUMER MAP (summary; full tables in the dispatch-map sweep)
+
+- ~50 Agent() dispatch sites across 20 skills + 2 lib includes +
+  client-handover-writer (9 internal dispatches, incl. skills-via-general-purpose).
+- 20 inline-load sites (7× doc-syncer, 4× plugin-advisor, 3× analyzer, 2×
+  interviewer, 1× each onboarder/scaffolder/client-handover-writer/refactorer).
+- Includes: model-gate.md ×15 skills (+5 locked EXCLUDED), challenge-plan.md
+  ×12, verify-secure-loop.md ×5, contract-interview ×5, capitalize-commit ×6,
+  doc-commit ×6.
+- ~30 prose refs claim current tiers (sonnet-pinned X, opus-pinned Y, BDR-066/
+  BDR-076 citations) → all go stale on tier changes (LRN-113 sweep required).
+- Only onboard uses explicit `model="opus"` dispatch params (7 sites); every
+  typed agent relies on frontmatter pin; ship-feature/init-project mandate
+  `model: "sonnet"` on SDD subagents by prose.
+
+## CONSTRAINTS (zero-loss bar)
+
+1. Verbatim machine-parsed grammars must survive verbatim: `VERIFY — VERDICT:
+   CONFORME | ECARTS(n) | ERROR(<reason>)`, `SECURITY — VERDICT: PASS |
+   BLOCK(n) | ERROR(<reason>)`, `CHALLENGE — LENS: … — VERDICT: SOLID |
+   CONCERNS(n) | FATAL(n)`, mandatory `PROOF:` lines, sentinel `READY TO APPLY
+   — awaiting dispatcher confirmation`, `<NAME>-EXEC REPORT` + `STATUS : DONE
+   | NEED-DECISION | BLOCKED`, `PATCHED_FILES:`, `COMMIT PLAN`, labeled score
+   lines parsed by client-handover extractors, `HANDOVER-DOC REPORT`.
+2. BDR-050 + LRN-083: loops + decisions live in the MAIN loop; gates dispatched
+   fresh, blind, zero iteration history. Splits must not move loop decisions
+   into children.
+3. BDR-061: seo/geo/validator have no Agent tool by doctrine (version-robust
+   single dispatch level). Any intra-audit split is skill-orchestrated at L1
+   unless BDR-061 is explicitly revised.
+4. LRN-126: every implicit data path (ARGUMENTS flags, detected vars, STEP-N
+   side outputs) must cross the new handoff contracts explicitly; census-style
+   tests will NOT catch severed wires — a data-flow read per split is required.
+5. LRN-125: no dual-use agent across tiers; audit consumer routes to the
+   judgment agent, execution consumer to the executor.
+6. Interactivity: dispatched agents cannot ask the user. All human gates
+   (AskUserQuestion / inline approval) stay in main loop or inline-loaded
+   orchestrators. doc-syncer STEP 8 + plugin-advisor PHASE 4 gates must be
+   hoisted before dispatch conversion.
+7. Test locks (fire on this refactor): model-routing (~61, epicenter — pins,
+   dispatch strings, gate wiring loops, `model="opus"` literals, BDR-076 token),
+   plan-challenger (~43 — frontmatter, grammar, challenge-plan doctrine
+   sentences incl. BDR-066 token), loops-light (40 — verify-secure-loop 10
+   sentences, sonnet pins, report grammars, "Agent" ABSENT from
+   bugfixer/hotfixer — substring-fragile), contract-verifier (33),
+   security-auditor (31), seo-data (6 body-wiring locks on seo/geo bodies),
+   loops-heavy (19 skill prose), review-guards G3 (strict YAML on every agent
+   file incl. new ones), no-vacuous-locks (no `\n` in new lock patterns —
+   LRN-093), model-check (10 — tier vocabulary big/small; a new tier taxonomy
+   must co-evolve witness + test). Census `for`-loops (model-routing:13-19,
+   plan-challenger:42) must be edited for any new/renamed gated skill.
+8. model-gate.md prose has NO deterministic lock (include-path only) — free to
+   rewrite, but behavioral-only verification.
+9. Gitflow: feature branch(es) via gitflow.sh; no merge without human signal.
+   Unmerged branches in flight: `feature/opus-pin-audit-agents` (this refactor
+   supersedes/absorbs it), `bugfix/seo-geo-integrity` (10 commits touching the
+   seo surface → sequencing/conflict risk with a seo-analyzer split).
+10. BDR-076 survival: opus tier for judgment agents survives as baseline;
+    validator-analyzer's opus pin would be superseded (tier-down); seo/geo pins
+    refined by splits; challenge-plan/plan-challenger doctrine text + census
+    §11 rewritten again.
+
+## RISKS
+
+- Severed implicit data paths on splits (LRN-126 precedent: 2 silent input
+  losses caught only by whole-branch review) — probability: HIGH without a
+  per-split data-flow pass.
+- Consumer staleness (LRN-113): ~30 prose refs + 9 identical gate preambles +
+  2 census loops — partial sweep leaves contradictory doctrine — probability:
+  HIGH without whole-surface grep + new guards.
+- Lost human gates on inline→dispatch conversions (doc-syncer STEP 8,
+  plugin-advisor PHASE 4) — probability: MEDIUM-HIGH; hoist-first pattern
+  exists (BDR-066 wave 4 did exactly this for client-handover).
+- Census under-coverage: NEW agent files are silently unlocked unless
+  model-routing/census extended per agent (worse than a red) — MEDIUM.
+- haiku reliability on long tool chains (seo/geo collection legs: GSC, CWV,
+  curl loops, retry policies): only haiku precedent is status-reporter
+  (short, deterministic) — MEDIUM; unproven.
+- Split overhead: 3-dispatch audit pipeline re-serializes STEP 1-2 context per
+  child; latency + token duplication vs today's monolith — MEDIUM.
+- Merge sequencing with `bugfix/seo-geo-integrity` (10 commits on seo surface)
+  — MEDIUM.
+- Subagent-report trust (LRN-132): (sub)-marked classifications need spot
+  re-verification during design — MEDIUM.
+
+## OPEN QUESTIONS (design arbitrage needed)
+
+1. verifier: keep sonnet (BDR-066 oracle-anchored rationale) or lift to opus
+   (STEP 2 adjudication is the correctness gate)?
+2. seo/geo split mechanics: skill-orchestrated L1 pipeline (BDR-061-compatible)
+   vs nested dispatch inside the analyzer (requires revising BDR-061;
+   version floor OK per BDR-060)?
+3. Which inline-loads convert to dispatches (scaffolder, onboarder, doc-syncer
+   doc-commit steps, plugin-advisor detection) vs stay inline as reflection?
+4. commit-changer: file split vs per-mode `model=` override at the 2 existing
+   dispatch sites?
+5. haiku scope: which mechanical halves actually go haiku vs sonnet, given the
+   reliability unknown on long tool chains?
+6. Gate taxonomy: keep binary big/small model-gate (guards main loop only) or
+   extend model-check.sh to the full 4-tier vocabulary?
+7. Sequencing: land/absorb `feature/opus-pin-audit-agents` and
+   `bugfix/seo-geo-integrity` before or during this refactor?
+
+## DESIGN AMENDMENT (2026-07-19, user arbitrage — supersedes open questions)
+
+User approved all 7 recommendations, PLUS one addition:
+
+**No-inherit rule + fable pins.** No dispatched agent may inherit the session
+model anywhere. Every dispatch site carries an explicit tier: typed agents via
+frontmatter pin (`model: fable|opus|sonnet|haiku`), built-ins
+(general-purpose / Explore / Plan) via a `model=` param at EVERY call site.
+Rationale: sessions may run on another model (gate admits Opus; user may
+launch anything) — inheritance would silently mis-tier dispatched work.
+`model="fable"` lands where a dispatched child performs REFLECTION /
+ORCHESTRATION on behalf of the main loop:
+- client-handover-writer's 8 internal general-purpose skill-runner dispatches
+  (/seo, /harden, /cso, /commit-change, /web-validate runs) — today they
+  inherit; they host gated orchestration → `model="fable"`.
+- Doctrine line (model-gate.md or routing doctrine): ad-hoc reflection
+  dispatches from the main loop (Explore digest, Plan, general-purpose) carry
+  `model="fable"`; non-reflection ad-hoc dispatches carry their complexity
+  tier. New census locks accordingly.
+- No TYPED agent moves to fable tier (plan-challenger/analyzer stay opus per
+  approved verdicts). Inline-loads that remain (interviewer,
+  client-handover-writer, analyzer-in-/analyze + DEBUG, init STEP 2) ARE the
+  main loop — covered by model-gate, not pins.
+- External/gstack skills with inheriting general-purpose dispatches
+  (design-shotgun, review, graphify) — external ownership (BDR-015 class):
+  covered by doctrine, not edited, unless owned locally. Verify ownership at
+  implementation.
+
+## TARGET MODEL MAP — ship-feature (example, per-step)
+
+| Step | What runs | Where | Model (target) | Δ vs today |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| MODEL GATE | witness + self-check | main loop | session (Fable; Opus admitted) | — |
+| 0 plugin check | detection probes | dispatched (plugin-advisor detection half) | haiku | today inline on session |
+| 0 plugin check | complexity scoring + reco | dispatched (advisor judgment half) | opus | today inline on session |
+| 0 plugin check | apply gate (user) | main loop | Fable | — |
+| 0b/0c context + ctx7 | trivial bash probes | main loop | Fable (trivial) | — |
+| 0d read-before digest | analyzer | dispatched | opus | pinned (BDR-076) |
+| 0e contract | contract-interview + micro-gates | main loop | Fable | — |
+| 1 brainstorm | superpowers:brainstorming | main loop | Fable | — |
+| 2 plan | superpowers:writing-plans | main loop | Fable | — |
+| 2b challenge | 3× plan-challenger | dispatched | opus | pinned |
+| 2b synthesis + RE-THINK | severity merge, plan revision | main loop | Fable | — |
+| 3 validation gate | human gate | main loop | Fable | — |
+| 4 SDD implement | per-task implementers + reviewers | dispatched | sonnet (explicit `model:"sonnet"`) | — |
+| 4 task decomposition / verdict arbitration | SDD driver | main loop | Fable | — |
+| 4b error diagnosis | analyzer DEBUG (inline) | main loop | Fable (reflection on the solution) | — |
+| 5 verify + secure | verifier, security-auditor (fresh) | dispatched | sonnet | — |
+| 5 loop decisions | ECARTS/BLOCK routing | main loop | Fable | — |
+| 6 code review | reviewer (superpowers) | dispatched | **opus explicit** | today INHERITS (leak) |
+| 7 capitalize | registry gate + commit | main loop | Fable | — |
+| 8 doc sync | doc-syncer | dispatched | sonnet | today INLINE on session |
+| 9 finish | gitflow + human go | main loop | Fable | — |
+
+## TARGET MODEL MAP — init-project (example, per-step)
+
+| Step | What runs | Where | Model (target) | Δ vs today |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| MODEL GATE | witness + self-check | main loop | session (Fable; Opus admitted) | — |
+| 0 plugin check | detection / scoring / gate | dispatched haiku / dispatched opus / main loop Fable | (as ship-feature) | today inline |
+| 1 interview | interviewer (interactive Q&A) | main loop (inline — a dispatched agent cannot ask) | Fable | structural |
+| 1 contract | contract-interview | main loop | Fable | — |
+| 2 analyze brief | analyzer (inline — greenfield design reflection) | main loop | Fable | stays inline |
+| 3 design | superpowers:brainstorming | main loop | Fable | — |
+| 4 gate #1 + contract enrich | human gate | main loop | Fable | — |
+| 5 scaffold | scaffolder | **dispatched** | sonnet (effort: high) | today INLINE on session — pin inert |
+| 5b readme bootstrap | doc-syncer | **dispatched** | sonnet | today INLINE |
+| 5c/5e/5f ctx7 + anim + gitflow init | deterministic bash | main loop | Fable (trivial) | — |
+| 6 plan | superpowers:writing-plans | main loop | Fable | — |
+| 6b challenge + synthesis | 3× plan-challenger / merge | dispatched opus / main loop Fable | — | pinned |
+| 7 gate #2 | human gate | main loop | Fable | — |
+| 8 SDD implement | implementers + reviewers | dispatched | sonnet | — |
+| 8b graphify | bash | main loop | Fable (trivial) | — |
+| 9 verify + secure | verifier, security-auditor | dispatched | sonnet | — |
+| 10 code review | reviewer | dispatched | **opus explicit** | today INHERITS (leak) |
+| 10b capitalize founding BDRs | registry gate | main loop | Fable | — |
+| 10c doc sync | doc-syncer | **dispatched** | sonnet | today INLINE |
+| 11 finish | gitflow + human go | main loop | Fable | — |
+
+## RELATED MEMORY
+
+- IN FORCE: BDR-066 — model routing waves 1-4 — the architecture being
+  re-tiered; its rationale table is the baseline [accepted]. BDR-076 — opus
+  pins on dispatched judgment — starting state, partially superseded by the
+  new target [accepted, this branch]. BDR-050 — verify+secure loops in main
+  loop, gates fresh [accepted]. BDR-049 — verifier fresh+blind+disk-contract
+  [accepted]. BDR-048 — pinned semgrep gate [accepted]. BDR-061 — fix-bundle
+  → L1 apply, analyzers have no Agent tool [accepted]. BDR-060 — nested
+  dispatch floor v2.1.172 [accepted]. BDR-075+amendment — challenge phase in
+  12 orchestrators [accepted]. BDR-025 — unknown never silently passes
+  [accepted]. BDR-022 — doc-syncer never touches .claude/ [accepted].
+  LRN-125 — no dual-use across tiers. LRN-126 — splits sever implicit data
+  paths; forward every consumed field. LRN-113 — whole-surface sweep + guard.
+  LRN-083 — loops in main loop. LRN-093 — no `\n` in grep locks. LRN-096 —
+  flip-test new guards. LRN-112 — nesting supported. LRN-105/107 — explicit
+  tool bans in read-only mandates. LRN-011 — one subagent, N gated scores
+  (alternative to 3-way split). LRN-057 — match mechanism to consumer.
+  LRN-102 — final-text-only rendering guarantee. LRN-132 — subagent claims
+  need verification.
+- ALREADY SEEN: BLK-004 — renamed/deleted agent files broke a consumer wrapper
+  [resolved] (rename sweep discipline). EVAL-023 — BDR-066 post-merge ronde
+  found 5 edge gaps [done] (plan a ronde here too). EVAL-026 — 3-way plan
+  challenge caught 4 real BLOCKERs on its own plan [done] (run it on this
+  refactor's plan).
+- NON-BINDING: ~200 remaining headings surfaced nothing binding beyond the
+  above — BDR-067/068/069 (release/permissions), LRN-first-100 (tooling),
+  BLK-005..017 (env) — counted, not detailed.
+- SELECTION: scanned ~230 headings — surfaced 28 = in-force 22 + seen 3 +
+  non-binding (counted).